Monday, July 21, 2008

Episode 7

OK, sorry Heather, it's not Clay. (Our year on the Mole has been trying to figure out who the mole is as well; Heather picked Clay early on.) And, Paul is still here. Clay's a lawyer; he's supposed to know better.

First off, to start from the end, no mole worth his (or her) salt would jeopardize folks seeing their families. And, Paul actually came off as...well, likable! Shoot, how can you have a daughter that delightful and smart, and a girlfriend that delightful, and be as obnoxious as he has appeared thus far? Opposites attract? Maybe, but not that much. (Hmm. I'm thinking or Rob and Amber from Survivor; there polar opposites did indeed attract.) I saw no molish activities in the family game...other than some of Nicole's statements. She keeps trying to make us think she is the Mole. Well, to quote Al from Season 2...maybe she is!

Not a lot to go on in the game of the Dumb versus Smart ones. The most obvious person who appeared to sabotage...then come up with some sort of Dorothy-like magical answer math answer to Nicole's mistaken answer...and who I then started really reconsidering as the Mole...was Clay. And, make no mistake about it, he's not the Mole...unless we have a previously not considered twist to this entire show! Forget Clay.

Nicole. Bad in math, not a good counter beyond the number of fingers and toes she has? Or, deliberately sabotaging...very obviously. On the other hand, when Craig screwed up the numbers early on, she salvaged it. So, could it be Craig? Could be.

Mark. Not much action this week. No apparent sabotage.

So, who sabotaged the most? Clearly, it was Clay. Heather must be right; he must be the Mole...just as Elavia was clearly the Mole in Season 2.

Geez. How's a guy to pick? 1. Mark. 2. Nicole 3. Craig 4. There is no 4. Paul...nicer than I thought, but not the Mole.

Time will tell.

The Mole II


At July 21, 2008 at 11:49 PM , Blogger Brian Boyko said...

Bill, I am a convert.

That's all I'll say.

-- Brian

At July 22, 2008 at 1:21 AM , Blogger La Louis Bonita said...

Have to say, Clay's elimination proves the futility of trying to analyze all these "clues" the producers dish out. I based my guess of Clay on two specific instances: 1) The camera once panned past a sign that read "Constitucion" (or whatever "Constitution" is in Spanish), and I figured that referred to Philadelphia, the home of the Constitution, and Clay's hometown; 2) The frequent displays of Christian imagery and Jon's mention of the contestants' wearing "their Sunday best" seemed to point towards an openly Christian culprit -- and no one seemed to fulfull that theory like Clay, either.

However, here I am back in the dark with everyone else. Great work again on the blog, Bill, and I can't wait to find out which contestant is very, very successfully duping me.

At July 22, 2008 at 1:55 AM , Blogger M said...

Bill, first of all you were great in the second season even though I knew it was you from the third episode. I think all the players know what the mole is and how the game is. I think they're all constantly messing up on purpose to try to look like the mole and to throw others off. I still think it's Mark. If not, then Craig. When the current season of the Mole is over, you have to continue the blog and tell us some of your Mole stories!

At July 22, 2008 at 10:47 AM , Blogger Brian Boyko said...

Bill, I'm going to try to get a viral video for together, and I'm going to talk a bit about the strategies. I totally underestimated this show at first glance.

Hell, I may even try out if it gets another season.

Know where I can get a green fingerprint tie?

At July 22, 2008 at 6:12 PM , Blogger Unknown said...

Hi, Bill. Big fan of the Mole and of yours. Just found this today and read through a lot of it. What do you think of this:

Through my experience watching The Mole, I can't remember ever seeing the mole discussing being in an information-gathering coalition. The only one on the current season that its that is Craig. What do you think? Since you were there, you would know more about it than I do, but it sure looks that way from where I'm sitting.

At July 22, 2008 at 8:58 PM , Blogger Bill said...

Brian, I'm glad you stuck around long enough to get hooked! Fascinating to me, and as I have stated before, if anyone absolutely knows who the mole is before the finale...someone screwed up! Just like you can never, never know how you really did on a quiz. When Jon says, "There was a tie," that might really mean..."Every one of you (except the Mole, who always scores a perfect score) missed every question, dummies, and the slowest is going home!" That was certainly the case for several weeks in Season 2.

Max, thanks. I really think the telegram clue was way too obvious in Season 2, and was very sorry it was released. Even the Mole couldn't prevent that!

Gorgonian, I'm not quite sure what you are asking. Because of my paranoia at giving myself away, I shied away from any coalitions. Kathryn chose to have them. On the current show, Mark and Craig have coalitions. Paul apparently does not, once Marcie departed. Nicole...maybe Clay was.

Who's the Mole? I'm sticking with Mark, but won't feel badly if it is any of them, other than Paul.

The Mole II

At July 22, 2008 at 10:58 PM , Blogger Brian Boyko said...

Well, I mean, I -was- able to pick out the mole due to a rather obvious clue in Episode 1 this season, (I do not think the players had access to Wikipedia at any time, so it's an audience-only clue) so maybe it's not.

I went to the thrift store and got a black blazer and a green tie, and some spooky secret agent specs for the viral video entry - and I know exactly the abandoned parking garage I'm going to be filming in.

At July 23, 2008 at 8:10 AM , Blogger Unknown said...

I'm going on record that it is Craig. Mark was my suspect, and the elimination of his "partner" Clay should strengthen that. But watching the recap really showed just how much money Craig has dropped. And as you say Bill, a Mole isn't worth his salt if he doesn't sabotage.

At July 23, 2008 at 10:26 AM , Blogger TerrieAnne said...

Wouldn't you consider Paul's getting the smart team to go 8 blocks in the wrong direction sabotage? I know how annoyed I am when I go in the wrong direction, and 8 blocks is a long way in a time crunch.

I've just discovered this blog and I'm enjoying it a lot -- I like your writing style. Tried to buy your book, but it's out of stock at amazon (at least it was yesterday).

At July 23, 2008 at 2:21 PM , Blogger Brian Boyko said...

Terrieanne, I think one of the problems is that there's no easy way to tell sabotage from actual mistakes. Yeah, it looks suspicious, but - and this is a big but - the mole wants to make his sabotage look like incompetence, and the players want their incompetence to look like sabotage.

I'm still trying to wrap my head around the strategies involved.

Bill, can you help me out with understanding some of the strategies? One of the things I'm not sure of is how studying past quiz questions and executions (as Mark is doing) can give you a good idea of who the mole is. Can you help walk me through it? I think it may help me out with the "SaveTheMole" video I'm working on.

At July 23, 2008 at 3:25 PM , Blogger Brian Boyko said...

Here's one of the things I've got so far - only kinda works when you get down to 7 players or so.

If you've been keeping notes about the content of the quizzes and what you answered (risking a poor time in case of a tie, but it's a calculated risk) you can then go back when there are about 7 players or so.

On paper, make a chart of how much you would have scored on each quiz if each suspect was the mole.

The lowest possible score on the quiz is zero. Therefore, any player scoring a zero - except when there is a tie - is going to automatically be executed.

So, if your score would have been "zero" for any suspect, on any quiz that did not result in a tie, you can safely eliminate them as a suspect. This is more of an effective "end-game" strategy, however.

Additionally, if you know an executed player "went all in" for a particular suspect, and they get executed, you can eliminate that suspect. You know. If you trust them.

I'm still looking at ways to eliminate suspects. Anyone come up with something I haven't? There has to be a method to the madness.

At July 23, 2008 at 4:21 PM , Blogger Bill said...

Terrieanne, you can buy the book through the website this blog is on, I'll sign it and fire it to you.

Brian, I'm not sure at all if studying past quizzes has any value at all. I.e., in our season after the 2nd week virtually everyone on the show (except me) thought Elavia was the Mole, and all put down her information. As the weeks passed, and your incorrect answers continued to keep you on the show (only because you finished the quiz faster than the other folks with incorrect answers), all became totally convinced that indeed Elavia was the mole. When she accepted the bribe and walked off everyone had to start from scratch.

If you have someone you really trust, and both are voting the same way, and the other gets executed, you know you are on the wrong track. Heather and Katie were both of the opinion that Dorothy was the mole, and promised each other that they would put down all the answers for her. Katie went home, and Heather switched to her next on the

So, studying the past quizzes? Might help you identify who has been executed! But, I'm absolutely not convinced it has any other value. You just never know what a correct answer is, because you are never told. You only know when you are really, really wrong!

The Mole II

At July 23, 2008 at 4:56 PM , Blogger Unknown said...

I just bought Bill's book myself Terrieanne. I wholeheartedly recommend it.

At July 23, 2008 at 6:17 PM , Blogger TheMommason said...

Mark's sabatouge attempt was as they ran back after getting lost he kept throwing out numbers he was saying this is 30 thousand dollars on the line and then he said a few other numbers while they were running back like trying to make them forget the numbers they were trying to remember... But I still think Nicole

At July 23, 2008 at 6:17 PM , Blogger TheMommason said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

At July 28, 2008 at 4:11 PM , Blogger Brian Boyko said...

Alright, this is my final prediction before the show airs tonight:

Mark as winner, Craig as mole.


Because ultimately, The Mole is structured like a James Bond spy thriller. And the one thing about the James Bond movies, you end up liking the good guy and the bad guy equally.


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