Monday, July 28, 2008

Episode 8

OK, to start with what I do know. Paul went home, which I expected. Look at it from mathematical point of view. Not a single one of the others thought Paul was the Mole. He had done no sabotage at all, played every game hard, and could not be the Mole. So, the other two non-moles, knowing that Paul could not be the mole, were left with only two people to consider when they were figuring out what answers to put down on the quiz. (For example, Nicole knew she was not the Mole, and know Paul wasn't. She just had Mark and Craig to consider. And so on for Craig and Mark.) Even with pure guesswork each of them only had a 50/50 chance of being right...or wrong. Paul, on the other hand, had to cover each of the other three on his answers, giving himself only a 1/3 chance of getting the answer right. If neither of the other two had any inkling about who the mole actually was, all they had to do was split the 10 answers between two people, guaranteeing that they would score better than Paul. Paul's only chance of staying in the game was to correctly guess the Mole, then answer all the questions accordingly. He clearly did not do that.

So, it was absolutely no surprise that Paul went home.

So, who's the Mole? Geez, I don't know! All three of the remaining players are the correct players to have remained in the game at this point. They sabotaged more games than anyone else, played the games better than everyone else, and the best final 3 are still left.

In the How's the View game, Paul played it straight; Mark really did so as well. Both Craig and Nicole acted suspicious, both costing money. I hope Nicole can cut a straighter line on a patient than she can hold a camera still...and in the right place. I really hope all of her surgery is via arthroscope! Neither Craig nor Nicole can keep quiet, so both were at fault for losing that money. Nicole continues to play with obvious sabotage attempts...whether or not they are real. Craig does the same. Craig will hate to hear this, but those two act like fraternal twins, competing in very similar ways to see who can look the most suspicious.

In the paintball game there wasn't a lot of suspicious activity...unless you consider Mark's 52 second solution to the problem. He made a point of stating that he does these for fun in the classroom. Maybe he does. Or, maybe he knew the answers already, being able to thus ensure he could cost the game another $20,000, plus keep the exemption out of any of the other's hands.

Who's the Mole? I'm still betting on Mark. Who's second? Nicole and Craig...and not necessarily in that order...but maybe so! As a good season should do, this season's final three are the ones who have sabotaged the most, look the most suspicious...and have played the best game. They got it right. And, true to form, I will not be surprised if any one of them is the mole. Ah, the winner? Nicole.

Bill
The Mole II

12 Comments:

At July 28, 2008 at 11:15 PM , Blogger PSUSyr5 said...

Bill, I forget where I said it, but I considered Paul to be a mix of Charlie from season 1 and Al from season 2. Al in that he played just about every game straight, playing to win. Charlie in that he wasn't afraid to go after whoever he wanted when he wanted. Little did I know how true that statement would turn out to be as both of those ended up being in the final four, only to be eliminated before the final 3...as was Paul's result.

Based on the previews it looks like one of the final tasks will be similar to the final game in your season...maybe this time one of them will open the dossier!

Stephen (sre141)

 
At July 29, 2008 at 8:03 AM , Blogger Brian Boyko said...

It could still be that all of the final four knew who the mole was.

Let's assume, for the moment, that Craig is the mole.

Mark and Clay targeted Nicole in the final-five. There was a tie. They knew they had the same answers, they knew Clay went home.

Mark doesn't suspect himself, he doesn't suspect Paul (because he's done little sabotage, like you mentioned) and he now knows the mole is not Nicole. Even if he didn't get the exemption, he would know the mole is Craig.

Paul also knows the mole is Craig, and has managed to peg him since day one, a la Charlie (S1).

Nicole knows she's not the mole, and Mark and Paul have played the game too hard. The mole is Craig by default.

Only Nicole and Paul were at risk because of Mark's exemption.

The difference could have been as little as Nicole remembering that Craig wore a t-shirt and Paul forgetting that he did, 10-9.

As for the doublet, I tried it at home based on the previews. I got a solution in 2 minutes, and I -don't- do word problems as a hobby, so a 57 second solution isn't out of the question.

And yes, based on the previews, I'm PSYCHED for the final-three tasks. "Bomb Defusal" looks like it's going to be as complicated and fun as "Hitchcock Hotel," (and just the type of spy game that The Mole should have more of) and the "Hunt for the Dossier" challenge comes back.

It looks like they're going to miss out on "Three Questions" which, to me, isn't that big a loss. 3Q isn't really visual, is more of an embarrassment factor than anything else, and I think it's one of The Mole's low points.

 
At July 29, 2008 at 8:37 AM , Blogger mackil said...

Well put Brian. And I agree 100% about the 3 Questions. Worst part of the Mole. The dossier game should be fun though.

And I still think Craig is the Mole, and Mark will be the winner.

 
At July 29, 2008 at 10:08 AM , Blogger Bill said...

Good analyses, Brian. Now, the great thing about the final three competitors is that a similar case can be made for each of them. There are compelling reasons why any of them could be the Mole. If Craig is not the Mole, I think he will be the winner. He's either really, Dorothy-like smart, or he's the Mole...or both, I suppose!

Bill
The Mole II

 
At July 29, 2008 at 12:33 PM , Blogger Brian Boyko said...

The one thing that I feel with some measure of certainty is that Mark is not the mole. Not just because he does well, but because Craig and Nicole often pair up together, despite the fact that Craig outright admits that he's more fond of Mark as a "Force of Good."

I believe Craig is the "real" mole, despite all of Nicole's sabotage; one of the reasons being that the real mole wants to deflect suspicion, the fake molettes want to attract it. So, Craig (as real mole) can deflect attention away to Nicole as much as he wants, and he knows Nicole will take it on.

 
At July 29, 2008 at 9:17 PM , Blogger Wil said...

I shouted openly at my TV when Paul was executed. There was a 2/3 chance that one of my suspects was going to be executed, but nooooo... Can never make it easy, can they?

 
At July 30, 2008 at 12:25 AM , Blogger R said...

The reason why I eliminated Paul and Nicole early on were their tempers and emotionally charged outbursts. Not what producers are looking for in a Mole.

Craig very level-headed, he's laid back and let's his natural lack of ability excuse his actions. I notice he's always fast to pick what team to go with and it always put him in tasks he could never hope to complete physically. It's a very good strategy. but he gives himself away in blaming everything on other factors. A good player would want the others to think they're the mole. The mole is the one who's defensive.

And based on Nicole and Paul's uncharacteristic camaraderie in this episode, it seems they both knew they were the only ones on the line. They both new it was Craig so it was all riding on time and remembering more questions.

The final four almost always know who the Mole is. And no way it's Mark. His pot contributions have been too astounding.

 
At July 30, 2008 at 1:06 PM , Blogger Wawawa000 said...

I love 'the mole'. diehard fan since episode1 of season1. but this season is boring. compare a clip of season 1 or 2 (or even the celebrity editions now).

the mole lost what made it different. now it judges its audience as unintelligent as seen by the cliffhangers into commericals with the fake "oh my god" voiceovers for example. and there are WAY WAY too many in-person interviews. during the older moles, there was no cutaway to people talking to the camera during a mission, because those take the viewer out of the mission. voiceover "internal thinking" was used. but this mole wastes so much pointless annyoing time with someone telling the camera "i found that to be suspicious/not trustworthy." just watch and listen; the word "suspicious" is used so much during the episodes. we the viewer can judge what's suspicious, we don't need clay wasting 20secs of the show telling us "when he did that, i became a little suspicious." its pointless, its boring, and it takes you out of the show. insight should be after the mission. the players should narrate the missions from their post-interviews, the camera and host's voice should tell the story.

bill, compare this clip from your season http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7WrvKCJ9srg&feature=PlayList&p=931F20E480B68CBB&index=17 or this ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VbkPOfN040w&feature=PlayList&p=0645AE75B05A8CC6&index=6 ) from season 1 to this ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zr_vQJsugTc&feature=PlayList&p=D98ED28976438307&index=8 ) boring season 5 clip.

i love the show, but season 5 is worse than yucatan. it's not the mole.

 
At July 30, 2008 at 6:22 PM , Blogger Brian Boyko said...

To be fair, you try putting together a major production in 12 weeks.

 
At August 1, 2008 at 2:17 PM , Blogger Biblivious said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

 
At August 1, 2008 at 2:18 PM , Blogger Brian Boyko said...

Bill, looks like Paul actually put up a "Save The Mole" video of his own:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XddRtf6CPGE

And ShanSlam has another movie up: The Honeymolers.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u-UxSNsxuVE

 
At August 2, 2008 at 6:51 PM , Blogger JenC said...

Hi Bill... I hope you can help answer a question that I have.

As part of the Save The Mole campaign we, and by that I mean the members of the message boards, have decided to go right to ABC. Our plan is for as many people as possible to send a Mole Thumbprint or a lemon (with a frown face on one side and save the mole written on the other) to the network. Two other series were saved by this method: Jericho fans sent peanuts to CBS and Friday Night Lights fans sent lightbulbs to NBC.

However, we found three different addresses, one in California and two in NY. Do you have an idea of where we should send our Save the Mole mail to?

Thanks for the help!

 

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